Willow Ranch, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

138
FXUS66 KMFR 200538
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
938 PM PST Fri Dec 19 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...Showers continue across the area this afternoon, and
will taper off through the evening, leaving most ofthe area dry
tonight through Saturday afternoon. Some precipitation may linger
along the coast and in far southeastern Siskiyou County Saturday,
but any amounts will be light. Meanwhile, snow levels are lowering
behind the departing front, and are expected to reach 3000-4000
ft by late this afternoon, then as low as 2000 feet by Saturday
morning. Precipitation will be negligible by this time, but we
can not rule out a few flurries here and there, even at lower
elevations.

After the brief dry and calm conditions Saturday, the next system
arrives Saturday night into Sunday. This will not be a potent
storm, but will bring more rain and mountain snow to the region.
Snow levels will rise to above 5000 feet with the arrival of this
system Saturday night, then lower to about 4500 feet again late
Sunday as the cold front passes and precipitation diminishes,
keeping most of the snow concentrated over the mountains,
especially along the Cascades, with some light snow in northern
Lake and Klamath counties. Breezy winds will accompany the
precipitation, but nothing close to the winds we have seen with
the last few systems.

A deep trough will dig south out of the Gulf of Alaska, arriving
off the coast of Oregon and northern California Wednesday. The
trough will toss a quick hitting system at the coast as it forms
Wednesday, then will itself pass onshore quickly behind sometime
around Christmas Day. These two systems will have a more southwest
to northeast track, focusing much of the precipitation along the
Oregon coast and over northern California and locations just
north of the CA/OR state line. Also, the expected trajectory will
create a robust south to north flow that will bring the
possibility of strong winds to the area, mainly over northern
California, high terrain, and across the East Side. Several
ensemble members are trending towards this stronger wind
solution, and some are starting to resolve 700mb winds in excess
of 80 kt. As a result, strong winds appear more likely to impact
pre-holiday travel.

At the same time, snow levels are expected to lower to around or
below 4000 feet, putting snow solidly over the higher mountain
passes and also impacting travel plans. This is especially true
for the passes in Siskiyou County, such as Snowman and Dead Horse
summits, where the southerly flow and high moisture content would
likely produce upslope effects, dumping a foot or more of snow.
East Side valleys should see only light accumulations, with West
Side valleys remaining snow-free. However, should either of these
systems take a more southerly route, colder air could infiltrate
into the region, lowering snow levels further. We will keep an eye
on things as they evolve, and update as necessary. -BPN

A special note: Today we bid farewell to Mike P. as he completes
his last shift before beginning his retirement from the National
Weather Service. It has been a pleasure working with him over the
years, even if he is a Yankees fan. His dedication to the science
will be missed. We wish him clear skies, fair winds, and
following seas as he heads off into his next chapter.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06 TAFs...A few isolated showers are passing
over the Oregon coast and Modoc County, but overall VFR ceilings are
present across northern California and southern Oregon tonight.
These levels should continue through the TAF period for most areas.
Guidance continues to suggest chances for lower levels developing in
the Rogue and Umpqua valleys, but the signals for those developments
are marginal. Possible timing remains in the forecasts for Roseburg
and Medford. Any overnight development should clear out by late
Saturday morning or early in the afternoon. Cloud cover starts to
increase towards the end of the TAF period as showers develop in
northern California. Showers may bring locally lower flight levels
in Modoc and Siskiyou counties, with showers moving northward into
Oregon on Sunday. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Friday, December 19, 2025...Winds will
continue to diminish into tonight, but seas will remain elevated
through early Saturday morning. Calmer conditions are expected
Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. A front will bring moderate
south winds, north of Cape Blanco Sunday, then a stronger front
could bring moderate to occasionally strong south winds, especially
north of Cape Blanco with at least Small Craft conditions.
-Petrucelli


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ029>031.

     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ030-031.

CA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ084-085.

     High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Saturday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$