Willow Ranch, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

041
FXUS66 KMFR 171205
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
405 AM PST Wed Dec 17 2025

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...

Key Points:

* Today/Tonight: Minor Impacts
    - Moderate rainfall tapering off late this morning
    - Snow level continue to drop this morning
        - Light snowfall amounts as moisture tapers off
            - Cascades north of Highway 140
        - Strong winds for eastside areas of Oregon
* Thursday to Friday night: Moderate to Isolated Major Impacts
    - Snow: Heaviest Friday into Friday night
        - Cascades north of Highway 140
        - Snow levels dropping to ~3500-4000ft Friday night
        - Snow amounts continue to be on the low end
    - Rain: Moderate to heavy rainfall for westside areas
        - Heaviest rainfall along and near the coast
        - Widepsread flooding not expected
        - Minor Flood: Myrtle Point (South Fork Coquille River)
            - Forecast to go into minor flood stage Sat. night
    - Wind: Strong winds for coast and eastside areas
* Sunday - Monday
    - Moderate rainfall: coastal areas, northern Cali, and eastside
    - Light Snowfall for elevations mainly above 4500ft:
       - Mainly Cascades and northern California

Further Details:

The overall upper level pattern continues to show persistent
troughing over/near the Gulf of Alaska with smaller pieces of energy
kicking out ahead of this main low pressure area. This will continue
to bring rounds of precipitation across the region which may result
in moderate to isolated heavy rain, light snowfall, and strong wind
speeds/gusts.

Today, snow levels drop low enough to allow accumulations for areas
at 4000 feet and above; however, we will also see QPF significantly
lowering during this time. Still not expecting notable snowfall
accumulations as these amounts will be relatively light. The bigger
impact will likely be the strong wind speeds for eastside areas and
northern California (Modoc County). Wind advisories and warnings are
in place across eastside areas. Wind speeds will likely be strongest
this morning with speeds dropping off through the afternoon hours.
The advisories/warnings go through 4pm, but we could see hazardous
conditions ending before 4pm as winds look to taper off late this
morning.

Snowfall Thursday through Friday night continues to indicate
relatively light accumulations, but rainfall amounts will still be
notable as another atmospheric river event begins to unfold across
the region. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, there may
be isolated areas of nuisance type flooding as rivers are currently
running low. That said, there are now indications for isolated river
flooding at Myrtle Point (South Fork Coquille River) which could go
into Minor Flood stage Friday night. Additionally, Powers (South
Fork Coquille River) and Deer Creek at Roseburg could both go into
action stage. Roseburg will be close to Minor Flood stage Friday
morning. Overall, we will continue to monitor as additional rainfall
could cause further fluctuations in river stages and forecast river
stages. The heaviest rainfall through this stretch will be for
westside areas, especially along/near the coast. Timing for highest
amounts will be Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Rivers may
take a while to "react" to rainfall, so we could see delays in some
river rises. During this stretch, the probability for 0.50"/6hr will
be about 70%-90% for westside areas, especially Curry, Coos,
Douglas, and Josephine counties. These probabilities have increased
notably from 24 hours ago. This is one of the reason why we are
seeing higher forecast river stages given these higher QPF
probabilities. Isolated areas in Curry County could see 4 inches of
rainfall over 24-36 hours from roughly Thursday afternoon/evening
through Friday evening. However, many westside areas could see 1-2
inches of rainfall through this stretch.

Regarding snowfall Thursday through Friday night, we continue to see
light snowfall amounts. Ensemble data now shows a tighter spread in
amounts, but there still remains some uncertainty. However, recent
trends have increased confidence that impacts will remain
limited/minor. In other words, not expecting any advisories or
warnings for the second round of snowfall Thursday/Friday.

Thereafter, moderate rainfall amounts expected Sunday into Monday,
especially northern California. Snow amounts through this stretch do
not look impactful and will be limited to higher elevations.
Overall, not expecting any notable impacts through this stretch
unless further QPF results in higher river stages or continue flood
stages. That said, forecast river stages are expected to fall below
any action stages Sunday into early next week, so at this time we
are not seeing any secondary rises or continued flood stages.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

Forecast soundings indicate low level wind shear is coming to an
end; as a result, decided to remove this from the 12Z cycle as winds
aloft ease. Otherwise, rainfall continues across the area, along
with low clouds and some minor visibility restrictions. Overall, a
mix of MVFR and IFR will continue through early parts of this cycle
with predominately MVFR conditions expected by this afternoon. In
fact, periods of VFR will be possible as rainfall comes to an end
early this afternoon. Rainfall chances return tonight which will
likely result in MVFR returning to the area. Lastly, low level
wind shear could return Thursday morning which may be reflected in
subsequent TAFs.

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Wednesday, December 17,
2025...Active weather will continue through most this week.

A front moving through the area will shift winds to the west and
gradually diminish through today. However, seas will remain very
steep with a Hazardous Seas Warning continuing through tonight and
into Thursday morning.

The next storm will be stronger and there`s good agreement for a
coastal jet forming along the coast, roughly from Port Orford north
and out to 30 nm from shore early Thursday morning and lasting into
Thursday evening. Probabilities from the HREF show a 90%-100% chance
for at least 60 mph winds across this aforementioned area. As a a
result, a Storm Watch has been issued.
Where storm force winds are not expected there will be solid gales
for the remainder of the waters from early Thursday morning into
Thursday evening and a Gale Watch has been issued.

The front will move southeast into the marine waters Thursday night
with winds shifting from south to northwest and diminishing, first
over the northern waters, then towards Friday morning in the
southern waters. In a relative sense, winds will be lighter later
Friday morning into the weekend. Seas are expected to remain
elevated Friday morning, then they will also gradually diminish
later Friday afternoon into the weekend.

Lastly, It`s also worth noting, moderate to heavy rain will
accompany both fronts resulting in limited visibility.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ030-031.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ029>031.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
     ORZ021-022-030-031.

CA...High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ085.

     Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for CAZ085.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
     CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST
     Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

     Storm Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$